Bills-Buccaneers Thursday night: NFL betting odds, picks, tips

 

Week 8 ramps up as the bufflalo bill (-8.5, 43) welcome the Tampa Bay Buccaneers to town for "Thursday Night Football."

So what can we expect from a betting standpoint for Thursday night's game?

The Bills have dropped two of their past three, including a Week 7 loss to the lowly Patriots. The Bucs come in losers of two straight, having lost to the Lions and Falcons. How are you betting this one?

Schatz: The Bills' defense is imploding since Matt Milano got hurt early in the Week 5 London game against the Jaguars. They ranked second in defensive DVOA in Weeks 1-4 but rank 28th in Weeks 5-7. But in the long term, it probably isn't going to be that bad for the Bills' defense. And even if you assume the Bills now have an average defense instead of a good one, my system still favors them to cover against the Bucs because their offense (third) has been so much more efficient than Tampa Bay's offense (24th). So despite Buffalo's inconsistency, I think the way to bet this game is Bills -8.5.

 

Moody: I'm backing the Bills -8.5 as well. A shocking loss to the Patriots last week has left Buffalo in need of redemption. Facing a Buccaneers team that lost three out of its last four, I am confident the Bills will find it on Thursday night. Josh Allen and Stefon Diggs should have a great deal of success against a Buccaneers defense that allows the sixth-most passing yards. The Bills should also be able to shut down Buccaneers' running game that ranks near the bottom of the league in rushing yards per game. Despite Buffalo's 3-4 record against the spread this season, I believe they will beat the Buccaneers convincingly at home. Against NFC teams, the Bills have won four of their past five games. The Buccaneers have failed to cover the spread in 12 of their 14 games against winning teams.

Marks: Buccaneers Team Total OVER 16.5 points. The Bills' defense is dealing with a plethora of injuries to key players (Matt Milano, DaQuan Jones, and Tre'Davious White ). Buffalo allowed the Patriots' offense to score 29 points, on 6.6 yards per play, for 365 total yards last week. Baker Mayfield should have success in the passing game.

The Bills have scored 39 points total in their past two games and the Bucs have mustered only 19 in the same span. Based on recent results, do you anticipate a low-scoring game in this one?

Schatz: I like this one to go OVER 43. I prefer to look long term at how good offenses have been over the entire season. As I noted above, the Bills are the No. 3 offense this year by DVOA. Tampa Bay is only 24th, but the decline of the Bills' defense due to injuries makes it more likely the Bucs can score some points. I know Thursday games can get sloppy, but that also opens up the possibility of defensive scores.

Fulghum: I'm playing the total OVER 43. Despite the continued success of Prime-time unders this season (16-7), I think we have a spot to attack the over. The Bills offense is in desperate need of a ceiling performance. They've averaged just 19.7 PPG over their last three contests. On the other side, I think Tampa can keep it close. Ever since the Bills' defense lost CB Tre'Davious White and LB Matt Milano, they've been very unimposing. I mean, Mac Jones and the Pats put up 29 on them last week! Bills 27, Bucs 20.

Dawson Knox (wrist surgery) won't be available for the Bills. Does that make any of Buffalo's receiving props more appealing? (Stefon Diggs 86.5 yards, Gabe Davis 39.5 yards, Dalton Kincaid 36.5 yards)

Schatz: I don't see a lot of Knox usage going to Gabe Davis, as they play very different roles in the offense. More likely, the Bills will use a lot more 11 personnel, and targets for Knox will become targets for Kincaid and perhaps third receivers Khalil Shakir and Trent Sherfield. Tampa Bay is fifth in DVOA against No. 2 receivers this year -- they kept DeVonta Smith to 28 yards, for example - so my favorite play here would be Gabe Davis under 39.5 yards with some interest in also going with Kincaid over 36.5 yards.

Fulghum: With the offense in desperate need of a feel-good performance, this feels like a game plan that is intent on featuring a lot of Diggs. Diggs OVER 86.5 receiving yards and Dalton Kincaid OVER 36.5 yards feel like comfortable plays. Just be careful, though. The sportsbooks realized that Knox is OUT, as well, and they are accounting for his absence in these lines. But if Buffalo's offense does what I think it should tonight, these two are in a great spot.

Walder: I'll throw in a gut feel over Kincaid OVER 36.5 receiving yards. A number that really stood out to me is that the top four tight ends in our Receiver Tracking Metrics' Overall Score this season are Travis Kelce, George Kittle, Mark Andrews and... Kincaid. He's actually third, ahead of Andrews. I think with Knox out Kincaid's role is going to grow quite a bit.

Marks: Khalil Shakir anytime TD (+750). The Bills play a lot of two TE sets, but with Knox out, their offense will change to more 3 WR set. Shakir will get more playing time, and was 4 for 4 with 35 yards last week. He should pick up where he left off.

What's your favorite prop in this game?

Fulghum: Rachaad White OVER 21.5 receiving yards. This is a play directly related to the absence of LB Matt Milano. Without him in the middle of the Bills' defense, White's assignment in the passing game is far easier. Rhamondre Stevenson posted 6 receptions for 51 yards last week against this Bills defense.

Walder: Devin White OVER 6.5 tackles + assists (-104). My tackles model projects 7.7 for White in this game, in part because of the spread. The Bills are heavily favored and so a likely outcome is for Buffalo to get out to a lead and start running the ball more. That creates more tackle opportunities for White, who records a higher tackle share on run plays than pass plays.

Moody: Rachaad White UNDER 43.5 rushing yards. The Buccaneers rank 21st in rushing attempts per game and 29th in rushing yards per game. Tampa Bay now faces a Bills' defensive front that ranks sixth in run stop win rate. Two out of six games this season have seen White surpass 43.5 rushing yards.

Is there anything else you are playing on Thursday?

Walder: Joe Tryon-Shoyinka UNDER 0.25 sacks (-175 at DraftKings). The Bills rank sixth in pass block win rate and Josh Allen has a 4% sack rate, the third-lowest in the NFL. Tryon-Shoyinka ranks 44th out of 56 edge rushers and my model gives this bet a 74% (-289) chance of going under.